TSKB Gayrimenkul Değerleme A.Ş. In its new report titled "Housing Market 2023 at a Glance", it examines the housing market. The research results, which share detailed information about the decline in mortgaged house sales, increasing rental prices, the change in sales to foreigners, the effect of immigration on purchases, housing issues of students and department expectations for 2024, shed light on the developments in the housing market.
TSKB Gayrimenkul Değerleme A.Ş. discussed housing investments in its research report titled "Housing Market 2023 at a Glance". Pointing out that the housing market has an important role in the economy as well as in the lives of individuals, the research results reveal important indicators regarding the evaluation of 2023 and expectations for 2024.
Sharing her opinions about the research, TSKB Real Estate Appraisal General Manager Makbule Yönel Maya said, “Housing sales dropped to their lowest level since 11 with a total of 1.087.349 units in the 2015-month period. Thus, housing sales decreased by 2023 percent in 15. It was observed that the difficulty in accessing housing finance and the increase in housing prices were effective in the slowdown in the housing market. The most striking data about the decline seen in 2023 was that the ratio of mortgage sales in total sales decreased to 16 percent, its lowest level to date. In an 11-month period; "The number of houses sold for the first time was 328 thousand 299, the number of houses sold with mortgages was 171 thousand 706, and the number of houses sold per working day was 4 thousand 687."
“The current level of housing prices has manifested itself as a decrease in purchasing power and an increase in rental prices.”
Pointing out that one of the important topics of 2024 is the rapid increase in housing prices, Makbule Yönel Maya said, “The negative real interest environment and inflation that occurred as of July 2021 reinforced the safe haven position of housing investment. The acceleration in the increase in housing prices has been seen especially in the last two years. The current level of housing prices has manifested itself as a decrease in purchasing power and an increase in rental prices. In addition, house prices increased below the inflation rate on a monthly basis in the third quarter, signaling a slowdown. While the annual nominal house price increase was at the level of 86,5 percent, the annual real house price increase was 15,6 percent, and the average unit price throughout Turkey was 30 thousand 36 TL/square meter. On the other hand, we think that three main topics will be on the agenda in the housing market in 2024. "The first of these is the development of tools that encourage new housing production, the second is the reconstruction of earthquake zones and the creation of financing sources and resource flow routes, and the third is the housing problem, which is one of the most important topics not only in our country but all over the world," he said.
“The number of houses sold with mortgages in the 11-month period is 171 thousand 706”
Stating that the demand for housing supported by affordable interest rates was the pioneer of a period of significant increase in housing prices and that there were subsequent increases in interest rates in line with economic policies, Makbule Yönel Maya continued as follows: “Housing loan interest rates were the highest in the last 42,2 years, at 10 percent annually as of November. While reaching its highest level, the lowest number of mortgage sales in the history of information was achieved with 5 thousand 245 units on a monthly basis in the same month. Considering the decreasing home ownership rates in Turkey, the production of affordable housing along with steps to reduce the financing cost of access to housing may turn the trend in home ownership into a positive one. The ratio of mortgage sales in total sales was 15,8 percent, the number of houses sold with mortgages in the 11-month period was 171 thousand 706, and the number of other house sales was 915 thousand 643.”
“Annual decrease in housing sales in the 11-month period - 14,9 percent”
The increase in home ownership in Turkey since 2013zamStating that the rate of tenants is increasing while the rate of renting is decreasing, Maya said, “When considering the increase rates in housing prices and rents together with this information, the value of affordable rental models becomes evident. The impact of migration between provinces following the earthquakes that took place during the year was also felt on rental prices. The housing problem manifests itself in a different area, not only with the difficulty of purchasing a house, but also with the rise in rental prices. In this regard, it is important to support the production of affordable rental housing with financial policies. "As of 2022, the home ownership rate was 56,7 percent, the tenant rate was 27,2 percent, and the annual decrease in housing sales in the 11-month period was -14,9%," he said.
“Compared to nationals, the most sales were made to citizens of the Russian Federation, with 30,2 percent of the shares.”
Noting that housing prices in dollar terms reached the highest level since 2010, reaching 2023 USD/m1.078 as of October 2, Maya said, “When we look at the foreign share in housing sales, last year the ratio of foreigners in total sales reached its peak value of 4,5 percent on an annual basis, and this will increase in 2023.” The rate was 3 percent. The one-to-one ratio decreased to 2023 percent as of November 2,5. Compared to nationals, the most sales were made to citizens of the Russian Federation, with 30,2 percent of the shares. On a province basis, Istanbul, which has been in the first place since 2015, was replaced by Antalya with 36,7 percent. "The annual USD-based housing unit price increase was 21,1 percent, the annual average share of foreigners in housing sales was 3 percent, and the housing sales to foreigners in 2023 were 32 thousand 941 units," he said.
“Antalya, where housing price increases are seen rapidly, has received approximately 85 thousand immigrants in the last two years.”
Pointing out that the issue of migration is another valuable information in the housing market, Maya said, “There has been an average of 200 thousand net migrations in the last six years. Antalya, where housing price increases are seen rapidly, has received approximately 85 thousand net immigrants in the last two years. Considering that, according to TÜİK's population projections, the annual population increase is expected to be around 1 million in the coming years, housing production needs to be increased quickly. Despite this, limited supply, delayed demand, migration and financing difficulties are the biggest obstacles to a possible improvement in housing prices. "The net migration in the last 7 years is 1 million 415 thousand 179, the increase in the number of households in 2022 is 639 thousand 765, and the population increase in 2022 is 599 thousand 280," he said.
“Increasing dormitory capacities is also very important for solving the housing problem.”
Reminding that the number of young people newly enrolled in a university in a province other than the province they reside in was 2021 thousand 386 in 646, Maya said, “As of 2022/2023, the total dormitory capacity was 1 million 322 thousand 754. While the housing issue is a fundamental issue, there is also a need for an analysis for students. Dormitory capacities are of great importance under this heading. Investments made in this area may facilitate student residence. Increasing dormitory capacities, especially private dormitory capacities, is also very important for solving the housing problem. "The annual increase in the total dormitory capacity is 8,1 percent, the public dormitory capacity for the 2022/2023 period is known as 876 thousand 942, and the private dormitory capacity for the 2022/2023 period is known as 445 thousand 812."
“Incentives for first-time home buyers are critical in relieving the pressure on the rental market.”
Sharing her sector expectations for 2024, Maya stated that the slowdown in the housing market may continue if the tightening in housing loans continues. However, with the decrease in tightening, Maya also stated that it is possible to meet with a more optimistic picture as of the second half of 2024, and continued as follows: “With the young population having decreasing access to housing, housing ownership is limited to a reasonable class. Incentives to be provided to first-time home buyers are of critical importance in relieving the pressure on the rental market. Deposit interest has great value for low risk oriented investors. During the past period, real estate investments, which increased due to risk aversion and the desire to preserve the value of money, were also affected by the low alternative returns. With the increase in deposit interest rates, there was a decrease in housing purchases for investment purposes. While this trend may continue as of the beginning of 2024, land and plot sales can be expected to be less affected.”
“The most real solution for green transformation” zam"we are in the moment"
Underlining that solutions that will increase the development of products for low- and middle-income end consumers will be another important focus point, Maya said, “The fact that the supply is limited and the construction takes a reasonable time shows that the solution will not be possible in a short period of time and therefore action must be taken quickly. The increase in the cost of living and the housing problem, especially in cities, are making their effects felt throughout the world. The increase in housing prices and rents leads to an increase in the share of housing in the cost of living. With the earthquake reality of our country and the incentives provided, urban transformation will be one of the most active topics next year. On the other hand, the best solution for green transformation is zamWe are in the moment. The housing branch has great value for achieving our country's 2053 net zero emission target. "It is possible to create both personal and environmental benefits by saving on housing maintenance and operating costs, especially by increasing power and water efficiency."
